Evaluating strategies for tuberculosis to achieve the goals of WHO in China: a seasonal age-structured model study (Q2141301)

This paper studies strategies for tuberculosis to achieve the goals of WHO in China. It proposes a tuberculosis model with age structure and seasonal transmission rate, where the population consists of \(n\) age groups. Each group is divided into seven categories including susceptible \(S_k\), vaccinated \(V_k\), latent \(E_k\), infected \(I_k\), treated \(T_k\), recovered \(R_k\) and deceased \(D_k\). The overall population size is given by \(N(t)=\sum_{k=1}^nN_k(t)\), where \(N_k(t)\) is the sum of the seven categories. The population is assumed to reach an equilibrium age distribution with exponential growth specified by \(N_k(t)=e^{ut}P_k\), where \(u\) is constant growth rate and \(P_k\) is the initial size of the \(k\)th group. In the \(k\)th group, susceptible individuals infected with tuberculosis transfer to latent class and infected class at the rates \((1-q_k)\Lambda_k\) and \(q_k\Lambda_k\), respectively. Here, \(q_k\) is the proportion of new infections that develop into active tuberculosis. The overall model is then described by a set of ordinary differential equations. The basic reproduction number is derived. The boundedness, existence, uniqueness and stability of the equilibrium solutions have been established. Based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo method, the parameters, initial values and the basic reproduction number are estimated. Some vaccination and treatment strategies have been explored in the context of goal-achieving of WHO in China. The tuberculosis cases data from January 2005 to December 2017 in China has been employed.