Effect of population partitioning on the probability of silent circulation of poliovirus (Q2141305)

This paper studies the effect of population partitioning on the probability of silent circulation of poliovirus. A discrete-individual multi-patch model is studied to incorporate a non-homogeneous contact structure. The model involves the SIR process with \(S\) naive susceptible, \(I_1\) first infection with the virus, \(R\) recovered and fully immune, \(P\) partially susceptible and \(I_r\) reinfected. Only individuals in the \(I_1\) compartment is assumed to experience symptomatic polio and polio-induced acute flaccid paralysis. The model also includes a vaccinated compartment, transmission seasonality, and a population divided into patches. There can be \(p\) patches each of which has population size \(N_p\) with and without movement between patches. The form of the seasonal transmission term is defined as \(\beta(t)=\beta (1+0.05\sin(2\pi t))\), where the amplitude is chosen as 0.05 of the contact rate \(\beta\) due to an empirical work. Inter-case intervals are assumed only between two explicitly simulated paralytic cases. It is shown that varying the number of patches changes the estimated probability of silent circulation within the framework. Numerical evidence shows that the appropriate case-free period for declaring a region polio-free may need to be adjusted based upon both population size and structure.