The variance of closed geodesics in balls and annuli on the modular surface (Q2143673)

The author studies the variance for the distribution of closed geodesics in small random balls and annuli on the modular surface, \(\Gamma \backslash \mathbb H\). To study this variance, the author proposes a probabilistic model using geodesic segments taken at random according to the Liouville measure in the unit tangent bundle of the modular surface. A key ingredient is a quantitative bound on the rate of mixing for the geodesic flow on the modular surface. This is combined with hyperbolic lattice point counting to obtain an asymptotic formula for the variance. The first main result is Theorem 1 which is stated and proved in section 4 of the paper. It is interesting to note that in the case of annuli, but not balls, a certain special function appears in the asymptotic expression for the variance. The second main result, Theorem 2, gives the asymptotic behavior of the variance corresponding to closed geodesics of squarefree fundamental discriminants as the discriminant tends to infinity. Another interesting feature is that the variance depends on the shape of the annulus, and not only its area. Theorem 2 is proven using different techniques from those in the proof of Theorem 1, namely applying methods of the preprint [\textit{P. Humphries} and \textit{M. Radziwill}, ``Optimal small scale equidistribution of lattice points on the sphere, Heegner points, and closed geodesics'', Preprint, \url{arXiv:1910.01360}] to the case of closed geodesics. To adapt these methods, instead of approximating with trigonometric functions, there are certain Bessel factors which must be carried throughout the argument, and these are precisely what give rise to the special function appearing in the asymptotics for the variance.