Stability transition of persistence and extinction in an avian influenza model with Allee effect and stochasticity (Q2213867)

This paper concerns with the structural transition in an avian influenza model caused by external environmental noise. Firstly, bifurcation diagram of the base model (Model A) (from [\textit{S. Liu} et al., Math. Biosci. 283, 118--135 (2017; Zbl 1398.92242)]) with Allee effect for avian population is provided. Then noise is introduced into Model A to get the Model B. Under the assumption that the two key parameters, the transmission rate and the natural death rate, are in the parametric zone such that Model A is bistable with the trivial steady state and the unique endemic equilibrium, numerical simulations indicate that the noise can bring a change to stability of Model A. In order to reveal the transition characteristics, the related Fokker-Planck (FPK) equation is derived to analytically describe the probability density distributions with long time evolution. As it is difficult to find theoretical solutions of FPK, it is solved numerically. Results confirm the stability transition observed before. Moreover, it is found that noise not only reduces the parametric zone of sustaining bistability but also drive the system to exhibit different monostability. In fact, noise can induce higher probabilities for the system to sustain persistence instead of extinction in Model B.