A data-driven mathematical model of the heroin and fentanyl epidemic in Tennessee (Q2230672)

In this paper, the authors developed and analyzed a novel compartmental model that focuses on prescription opioid use and addiction, heroin and fentanyl addiction, and the transition from prescription opioid use to heroin and fentanyl. The authors fit parameters to Tennessee population data from 2013 to 2018 by incorporating temporal variation in parameters due to trends in data and governmental policy. The results suggest that both addictions and overdoses related to heroin and fentanyl will continue to increase in the next few years (2020--2022), even as addiction to prescription drugs continues to fall. The authors also demonstrated that the most successful approach will target the availability of treatment with subsequent monitoring of stably recovered individuals to see that they do not relapse, coincident with direct efforts to decrease opioid overdose fatalities. The model is novel and the results obtained in this paper can provide management strategies for the government.