Modeling the impact of climate change on the dynamics of rift valley fever (Q2262570)

Summary: A deterministic SEIR model of rift valley fever (RVF) with climate change parameters was considered to compute the basic reproduction number \(\mathcal R_0\) and investigate the impact of temperature and precipitation on \(\mathcal R_0\). To study the effect of model parameters to \(\mathcal R_0\), sensitivity and elasticity analysis of \(\mathcal R_0\) were performed. When temperature and precipitation effects are not considered, \(\mathcal R_0\) is more sensitive to the expected number of infected \textit{Aedes} spp. due to one infected livestock and more elastic to the expected number of infected livestock due to one infected \textit{Aedes} spp. When climatic data are used, \(\mathcal R_0\) is found to be more sensitive and elastic to the expected number of infected eggs laid by \textit{Aedes} spp. via transovarial transmission, followed by the expected number of infected livestock due to one infected \textit{Aedes} spp. and the expected number of infected \textit{Aedes} spp. due to one infected livestock for both regions Arusha and Dodoma. These results call for attention to parameters regarding incubation period, the adequate contact rate of \textit{Aedes} spp. and livestock, the infective periods of livestock and \textit{Aedes} spp., and the vertical transmission in \textit{Aedes} species.