Analysis of dynamics of recurrent epidemics: periodic or non-periodic (Q2283925)

The periodic behaviors and non-periodic behaviors of recurrent epidemic are discussed by building an SIS model with disease age structure and infectious delay. We formulate the model as an abstract non-densely defined Cauchy problem and derive the conditions for the existence of Hopf bifurcation under the condition where endemic equilibrium is unstable. It implies that the recurrent epidemics will switch between periodic behavior and non-periodic behavior as the parameter values changing when the disease persists in population. The numerical examples are provided to illustrate our theoretical results. In this reviewer's opinion, the authors should mention (in addition to influenza) some of the diseases where recurrence is important, e.g. by multiple sclerosis.