Optimal virulence, diffusion and tradeoffs (Q2299329)

In this paper, the authors put forward the idea of an alternative of a classical SIR epidemiological model in which pathogens are identified by a (phenotypic) mutant trait \(x\). And assume that the trait \(x\) directly influences the epidemiological components of the pathogen, particularly the infection rate function \(\beta(x)\), the clearance rate \(\gamma(x)\) and the disease induced mortality \(\alpha(x)\). The main objective of this study is to find the phenotypic functions, that maximize the pathogen fitness. By analysing the principle of maximizing the basic reproductive number of the pathogen, authors discussed its evolutionary development as an optimal control problem -- pathogen's possible optimal evolutionary strategies were recognized with the help of Pontryagin's maximum principle. In the circumstances of virulence evolution, 3 types of optimal evolutionary routes were identified and analysed qualitatively. Each optimal solution forces a different tradeoff relation among the epidemiological parameters. In this study, the authors forecast two kinds of infections: short-lasting mild infections \& long-lasting acute infections.