Lengths of closed geodesics on random surfaces of large genus (Q2301923)

In this paper, the authors consider the asymptotic behavior of the distribution of short closed geodesics on random hyperbolic spaces as the genera tend to infinity. The moduli space \(\mathcal{M}_g\) of Riemann surfaces of genus \(g\) admits a natural probability measure \(\mathbb{P}_g\) induced from the Weil-Petersson metric. For \(X\in \mathcal{M}_g\) and an interval \([a,b]\subset \mathbb{R}_+=\{x\in \mathbb{R}\mid x>0\}\), let \(N_{g,[a,b]}(X)\) denote the number of primitive closed geodesics on \(X\) with lengths in the given interval. For \(a_1<b_1\le a_2<b_2\le\) \(\cdots\) \(\le a_k<b_k\), let \((N_{[a_i,b_i]})_{i=1}^k\) be a vector of independent Poisson distributed random variables with means \(\lambda_{[a_i,b_i]}=\int_{a_i}^{b_i}(e^t+e^{-t}-2)/(2t)\, dt\) (\(1\le i\le k\)) on a probability space (with the probabilty measure \(\mathbb{P}\)) that is rich enough to carry such a variable. The authors first show that for any \(m_i\in \mathbb{N}\) (\(i=1,\dots,k\)), \(\mathbb{P}_g(N_{g,[a_i,b_i]}=m_i, 1\le i\le k)\) tends to \(\mathbb{P}(N_{[a_i,b_i]}=m_i, 1\le i\le k)=\prod_{i=1}^k(\lambda_i^{m_i}e^{-\lambda_i}/m_i!)\) as \(g\to \infty\), where \(\lambda_i=\lambda_{[a_i,b_i]}\). Let \(\mathrm{sys}(X)\) be the systole of \(X\in \mathcal{M}_g\) and \(\mathbb{E}_g(\mathrm{sys})\) the expectation. Using the relation \(\mathbb{P}_g(\mathrm{sys}\le x)=1-\mathbb{P}_g(N_{g,[0,x]}=0)\), the authors show that \(\mathbb{E}_g(\mathrm{sys})\) tends to \(\int_0^\infty e^{-\lambda_{[0,R]}}dR=1.61498\ldots\) as \(g\to \infty\). In the comparison with Brooks and Makover's result [\textit{R. Brooks} and \textit{E. Makover}, J. Differ. Geom. 68, No. 1, 121--157 (2004; Zbl 1095.30037)], the authors also notice by applying the above result that \(\mathbb{P}_g(\mathrm{sys}\ge b)\to e^{-\lambda_{[0,b]}}=0.339043\ldots\) as \(g\to \infty\) for \(b=2\cdot\cosh^{-1}(3/2)\), while the probability measure from Brooks and Makover's model asymptotically concentrates in the \(b\)-thick part of the moduli space. In the appendix, the authors also give a sketch of an unpublished result by M. Mirzakhani that there is a universal constant \(A\), \(B>0\) so that for any sequence \(\{c_g\}_g\) of positive numbers with \(c_g<A\log g\), \(\mathbb{P}_g(\mathrm{sys}\ge c_g)<Bc_ge^{-c_g}\).