On Martin-Löf (non-)convergence of Solomonoff's universal mixture (Q2348255)

The paper investigates the convergence of Solomonoff\({}^\prime{}\)s universal mixture on individual Martin-Löf random infinite strings. A universal mixture is defined as the infinite sum \(M(x) = \sum_{i=0}^{\infty} w_i\cdot \nu_i(x)\), \(x\in\{0,1\}^*,\) where \((w_i)_{i=0}^{\infty}\) is a lower semi-computable sequence of reals with \(\sum_{i=0}^{\infty} w_i \leq 1\) and \((\nu_i)_{i=0}^{\infty}\) is an enumeration of lower semi-computable semi-measures. The main result is the following. Let \(M\) be a universal mixture and define \(M(b|x) = M(x)^{-1}\sum_{i=0}^{\infty} w_i\cdot \nu_i(xb)\), \(b\in\{0,1\}\). Then there is a Martin-Löf random infinite string \(\alpha\in\{0,1\}^\omega\) and an \(\varepsilon>0\) such that the set \(D =\{ n: |M(\alpha_n|\alpha_1\cdots \alpha_{n-1})- \frac{1}{2}|>\varepsilon\}\) has upper density \(\limsup_{n\to\infty} (D\cap\{1,\dots,n\})/n>0\). This result also extends to the normalisation of universal mixtures. Finally, it is shown that there is a non-random infinite string \(\alpha\in\{0,1\}^\omega\) such that the sum \((U(0|\alpha_1\cdots \alpha_{n})- \frac{1}{2})^2+ (U(1|\alpha_1\cdots \alpha_{n})- \frac{1}{2})^2\) tends to \(0\) for all universal lower semi-computable semi-measures \(U\).