On the stochastic SIS epidemic model in a periodic environment (Q2355796)

The aim of the author is to apply the WKB method used by \textit{M. Assaf} et al. [``Population extinction in a time-modulated environment'', Phys. Rev. E 78, No. 4, 041123, 13 p. (2008; \url{doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.78.041123})] to the stochastic SIS epidemic model with Hamiltonian \[ H(x,p)=x(1-e^{-p})[a(1-x)e^p-b], \] where \(a(t)\) is a \(T\)-periodic contact rate whose average is bigger than \(b\). It is shown that \((\log \tau)/N\) converges to some limit C, which is linked to time-periodic Hamilton-Jacobi equation (here \(\tau\) is the mean extinction time and \(N\) the population size). Such a model could mimic for example the spread of a bacterial infection that does not confer any immunity in a school with a weekly periodicity due to weekends, or a yearly periodicity due to holidays and seasonality. When \(a(t)\) is a cosine function with small amplitude or high (resp. low) frequency, approximate formulas for \(C\) are obtained analytically following the method used in the same article of Assaf et al. The obtained results are illustrated by numerical simulations.