Tail bounds for counts of zeros and eigenvalues, and an application to ratios (Q2361118)

Summary: Let \(t\) be random and uniformly distributed in the interval \([T,2T]\), and consider the quantity \(N(t+1/\log T) - N(t)\), a count of zeros of the Riemann zeta function in a box of height \(1/\log T\). Conditioned on the Riemann hypothesis, we show that the probability this count is greater than \(x\) decays at least as quickly as \(e^{-Cx\log x}\), uniformly in \(T\). We also prove a similar results for the logarithmic derivative of the zeta function, and likewise analogous results for the eigenvalues of a random unitary matrix. We use results of this sort to show on the Riemann hypothesis that the averages \[ \frac{1}{T} \int_T^{2T} \Bigg| \frac{\zeta\big(\frac{1}{2} + \frac{\alpha}{\log T} + it\big)}{\zeta\big(\frac{1}{2}+ \frac{\beta}{\log T} + it\big)}\Bigg|^m\,dt \] remain bounded as \(T\rightarrow\infty\), for \(\alpha, \beta\) complex numbers with \(\beta\neq 0\). Moreover we show rigorously that the local distribution of zeros asymptotically controls ratio averages like the above; that is, the GUE Conjecture implies a (first-order) ratio conjecture.