Linear birth and death processes under the influence of disasters with time-dependent killing probabilities (Q2366184)

Supercritical linear birth-and-death processes are considered under the influence of disasters that arrive as a renewal process independent of the population size. The killing probability in a disaster is a function of time from the last disaster. A necessary and sufficient condition for almost sure extinction is derived. When catastrophes form a Poisson process, formulas for the Laplace transforms of the expectation and variance of the population size as a function of time, and the moments of the odds of (random) extinction are derived. Numerical techniques are used to plot the density of the probability of extinction.