Exact representations for tumour incidence for some density-dependent models (Q2368383)

Summary: Carcinogenesis is a multistage random process involving generic changes and stochastic proliferation and differentiation of normal cells and genetically altered stem cells. We present the probability of time to tumour onset for a carcinogenesis model wherein the cells grow according to a birth and death process with density-dependent birth and death rates. This is achieved by transforming the underlying system of difference equations which results in a continued fraction. This continued fraction approach helps us to find the complete solutions. The popular Moolgavkar-Venzon-Knudson (MVK) model [see \textit{S. H. Moolgavkar} and \textit{D. J. Venzon}, Math. Biosci. 47, 55--77 (1979; Zbl 0422.92006)] assumes constant birth, death, and transition rates.