A stochastic model of fowl pox disease: estimating the probability of disease outbreak (Q2674781)

This paper presents a stochastic model of fowl pox disease focusing on estimating the probability of disease outbreak. A deterministic model is developed first, which describes the transmission dynamics of fowl pox disease. It is then transformed into a stochastic model using the continuous-time Markov chain approach. The total chicken population at time t is divided into three subpopulation classes, namely, the susceptible chicken \(S_c(t)\), infectious chicken \(I_c(t)\), and recovered chicken \(R_c(t)\). Under mosquito population, \(M(t)=S_m(t)+I_m(t)\), where \(M(t)\) is the total mosquito population at time \(t\), \(S_m(t)\) is the susceptible mosquito population and \(I_m(t)\) is the infected mosquito population. The system involves dynamics \begin{align*} dS_c/dt&=\lambda-\beta S_cI_c/N-\alpha S_cI_m/N-\sigma S_cB-\mu S_c,\\ dI_c/dt&=\beta S_cI_c/N+\alpha S_cI_m/N+\sigma S_cB-(\mu+\omega+\gamma)I_c,\\ dR_c/dt&=\gamma I_c-\mu R_c,\\ dS_m/dt&=\pi-\phi S_m I_c/N-\psi S_m,\\ dI_m/dt&=\phi S_mI_c/N-\psi I_m,\quad \text{ and } \\ dB/dt&=\tau I_c-\eta B, \end{align*} where \(N(t)=S_c(t)+I_c(t)+R_c(t)\) and \(B(t)\) is the concentration of fowl pox virus in the environment at time \(t\). The disease-free equilibrium, basic reproductive number, and endemic equilibrium point have been derived. Sensitivity analysis of the model parameters has also been studied.