New method of randomized forecasting using entropy-robust estimation: application to the world population prediction (Q272136)
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English | New method of randomized forecasting using entropy-robust estimation: application to the world population prediction |
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New method of randomized forecasting using entropy-robust estimation: application to the world population prediction (English)
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20 April 2016
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Summary: We propose a new method of randomized forecasting (RF-method), which operates with models described by systems of linear ordinary differential equations with random parameters. The RF-method is based on entropy-robust estimation of the probability density functions (PDFs) of model parameters and measurement noises. The entropy-optimal estimator uses a limited amount of data. The method of randomized forecasting is applied to World population prediction. Ensembles of entropy-optimal prognostic trajectories of World population and their probability characteristics are generated. We show potential preferences of the proposed method in comparison with existing methods.
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entropy
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randomized model
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randomized forecasting
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exponential world population model
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