Multiparametric bifurcations of an epidemiological model with strong Allee effect (Q353092)

The authors study the following epidemic model describing the joint interplay of a strong Allee effect and infectious diseases in a single population: \[ \begin{matrix} \dot x(t)=&rx(t)(1-x(t))(x(t)-u)-\alpha y(t),\\ \dot y(t)=&y(t)[(\sigma-1)x(t)-\alpha-d-ru-\sigma y(t)], \end{matrix}\tag{1} \] where \(x(t)\) is the dimensionless total population density at time \(t\geq 0\) which is composed of infected \(y(t)\) and susceptible \(x(t)-y(t)\), the parameter \(r>0\) is the per capita growth rate without disease, \(0<u<1\) is the Allee threshold, \(\alpha>0\) is the disease-induced mortality, \(\sigma>0\) is the infectious rate and \(d>0\) determines the effect of density dependence and independence in the demographic functions. Existence of multiple positive equilibria and all kinds of bifurcations are examined as well as the related dynamical behavior. It is shown that the model undergoes a series of bifurcations such as saddle-node bifurcation, pitchfork bifurcation, Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation, degenerate Hopf bifurcation of codimension two and degenerate elliptic type Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation of codimension three. Corresponding bifurcation surfaces in five-dimensional parameter spaces and the related dynamical behavior are obtained. These theoretical conclusions confirm the numerical simulations and conjectures developed by \textit{F. M. Hilker} et al. [``The Allee effect and infectious diseases extinction multistability and the (dis-)appearance of oscillations'', Am. Nat. 173, No. 1, 72--88 (2009; \url{doi:10.1086/593357})] and some new bifurcation phenomena are revealed.