No label defined (Q4258930)

The first computable general equilibrium model with overlapping generations was built up by \textit{A. J. Auerbach} and \textit{L. J. Kotlikoff} [Dynamic fiscal policy. (1987)] in order to appraise the effects of various fiscal and social security policies in the USA. Following this pioneering work, similar models have been used for different purposes and countries. The aim of this article is to describe the French demographic transition and its macroeconomic consequences, from now till 2050, and to appraise the macroeconomic and social welfare effects of various social securities policies. It is assumed that the long term dynamics of an economy almost obey neoclassical theory. The main result is as following: maintaining the current system would imply if the budget of the public pension system were kept balanced, a drastic rise of social contribution rates, the sum of employer's and employee's pension contribution rates would reach \(37\% \) in year 2050.