Exchangeability and sets of desirable gambles (Q432969)

In general, this paper studies desirable gambles as a model for uncertainty. In particular, the authors investigate exchangeable gambles and prove de Finetti style representation theorems for the finite and the infinite case. In the introduction the authors state the notions they are mainly interested in a broader historical context. Section 2 fixes the basic notations and introduces main notions such as desirable gambles, (maximal) coherence and natural extension. An explanation as to how weak desirability, coherent sets of gambles and lower provisions are related may be found in the third section. There the authors also state that they adhere to Walley's notion of updating sets of gambles. In Section 4 finite exchangeable gambles are studied. Count vectors are introduced which are later used to show how the natural extension and updating under exchangeability look like. The last main result in this section is a finite representation theorem for desirable gambles in terms of Bernstein coherent polynomials. Section 5 contains a representation theorem for countable exchangeable gambles. Furthermore, updating and the natural extension are studied in terms of frequency representation. In the penultimate section the authors demonstrate if and how to extend exchangeable sequences to longer, possibly infinitely long, sequences that are still exchangeable. All proofs can be found in the appendix.