The spreading frontiers of avian-human influenza described by the free boundary (Q476928)

The authors derive a model of avian-human influenza with free boundary. They investigate the properties of solutions, and describe the spreading frontiers of the avian-human influenza. Let \(B_s\) and \(B_i\) be the susceptible birds and infected birds with avian influenza, and \(H_s, H_a, H_m\) and \(H_r\) be the susceptible humans, infected humans with avian influenza, infected humans with mutant avian influenza and recovered humans with immunity in all his/her life, respectively. Assume that the total number of birds and that of humans remain constant, say \(N^*_b\) and \(N^*_h\). Under this assumption, they derive a system with 4 equations, by using SI model to describe birds and SIR model to describe humans. The right frontier is represented by a free boundary \(x=h(t)\), and left frontier is \(x=g(t)\), both functions satisfying some conditions such as \(g(0)=-h_0\) and \( h(0)=h_0\). By the given initial conditions for \(t=0\), \(x\in [-h_0,h_0]\) and boundary value conditions on the free boundary \(x=g(t)\) and \(x=h(t)\), a rounded model is built. They discuss the existence and uniqueness of solutions, give the expressions of basic reproduction numbers (\(r_0^F(t)\) for birds with avian influenza and \(R_0^F(t)\) for humans with mutant avian influenza), investigate the properties of these two basic reproduction numbers, and obtain the following conclusions: if \(r_0^F(0)<1\) and the initial number of the infected birds is small, the avian influenza vanishes in the bird world; if \(r_0^F(0)<1\) and \(R_0^F(0)<1\), the avian influenza vanishes in the bird world and human world; if \(r_0^F(0)<1\) and \(R_0^F(0)>1\), spreading of the mutant avian influenza in the human world is possible; if \(r_0^F(t_0)\geq 1\) for any \(t_0\geq 0\), the avian influenza spreads in the bird world.