Kottwitz's nearby cycles conjecture for a class of unitary Shimura varieties (Q508438)

The motivating problem of the paper under review is the calculation of the local factors of the Hasse-Weil zeta function of the canonical model of a Shimura variety. Recall that a Shimura variety is a quasi-projective complex variety \(\text{Sh}_K(\mathbf{G},X)\) attached to a connected reductive group \(\mathbf{G}\) over \(\mathbb{Q}\), a set \(X\) satisfying certain axioms, and a sufficiently small compact open subgroup \(K \subset \mathbf{G}(\mathbb{A}_f)\). The canonical model is a distinguished model of the Shimura variety, still denoted \(\text{Sh}_K(\mathbf{G},X)\), defined over a certain number field \(E \subset \mathbb{C}\) called the \textit{reflex field}. For \(\mathfrak{p} \subset O_E\) a prime ideal and \(\ell\) a prime number different from the residue characteristic of \(\mathfrak{p}\), the local factor at \(\mathfrak{p}\) of the Hasse-Weil zeta function of \(\text{Sh}_K(\mathbf{G},X)\) is defined in terms of the \(\ell\)-adic cohomology of \(\text{Sh}_K(\mathbf{G},X)_{\overline{E}_{\mathfrak p}}\). In [Perspect. Math. 11, 253--321 (1990; Zbl 0716.14010)], \textit{M. Rapoport} proposed a kind of semi-simplified variant of this, where the \(\ell\)-adic cohomology in each degree is replaced by its associated graded vector space with respect to a suitable filtration. The advantage of the resulting \textit{semi-simple local factor} is that it should be more amenable to calculation, and under the assumption of the \textit{weight-monodromy conjecture} of \textit{P. Deligne}, the semi-simple local factor determines the true local factor. When \(\text{Sh}_K(\mathbf{G},X)\) has good reduction at \(\mathfrak{p}\), meaning that it admits a smooth model \(\mathcal{S}\) over the local ring \(O_{E,\mathfrak{p}}\), the true local factor and the semi-simple local factor are the same, and their calculation amounts to the calculation of the cardinalities of the finite sets \(\mathcal{S}(k)\) for varying finite extensions \(k\) of the residue field \(k_{\mathfrak{p}} = O_E/\mathfrak{p}\). When \(\text{Sh}_K(\mathbf{G},X)\) admits a model over \(O_{E,\mathfrak{p}}\) of bad reduction, the semi-simple local factor can still be described in terms of point counts in the special fiber, but each point has to be weighted by the semi-simple trace of the geometric Frobenius endomorphism on the stalk of the complex of nearby cycles at the point. The calculation of this semi-simple trace in the case of bad reduction is therefore an interesting and natural problem. The paper under review addresses it in the setting of so-called ``fake'' unitary Shimura varieties, in the case that the level subgroup \(K\) is of the form \(K = K_p \times K^p \subset \mathbf{G}(\mathbb{A}_f) = \mathbf{G}(\mathbb{Q}_p) \times \mathbf{G}(\mathbb{A}_f^p)\), with \(K_p\) an Iwahori subgroup (\(p\) being the rational prime under \(\mathfrak p\), assumed not equal to \(2\)). These Shimura varieties are of PEL type (i.e., they are moduli spaces of abelian varieties with additional structure), and in [Period spaces for \(p\)-divisible groups. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press (1996; Zbl 0873.14039)], \textit{M. Rapoport} and \textit{Th. Zink} defined natural natural integral models of them over \(O_{E,\mathfrak{p}}\), as well as so-called \textit{local models}. Each point on the integral model has a neighborhood which is étale-locally isomorphic to a neighborhood on the local model \(\mathbf{M}^{\mathrm{loc}}\), and therefore it suffices to effect the calculation on \(\mathbf{M}^{\mathrm{loc}}\). Under the assumption that \(\mathbf{G}_{\mathbb{Q}_p}\) is an unramified (but non-split) unitary similitude group (necessarily in an even number of variables), the author proves \textit{Kottwitz's conjecture} that the semi-simple trace function on \(\mathbf{M}^{\mathrm{loc}}(\mathbb{F}_p)\) identifies with an explicit function in the center of the Iwahori-Hecke algebra for \(\mathrm{GU}\). This follows from the paper's main theorem, which asserts that, after embedding the geometric special fiber \(\mathbf{M}_{\overline{\mathbb{F}}_p}^{\mathrm{loc}}\) in an appropriate affine flag variety \(\mathcal{F}\ell\), the nearby cycles complex on \(\mathbf{M}_{\overline{\mathbb{F}}_p}^{\mathrm{loc}}\) is central with respect to convolution of perverse \(\ell\)-adic sheaves on \(\mathcal{F}\ell\). The paper follows earlier work of \textit{T. Haines} and \textit{B. C. Ngô} [Compos. Math. 133, No. 2, 117--150 (2002; Zbl 1009.11042)], who proved analogous results for local models attached to \(\mathrm{GL}\) and \(\mathrm{GSp}\). A key ingredient in their approach involved embedding the local model into a degeneration over \(\mathbb{Z}_p\) of an affine Grassmannian in the generic fiber to an affine flag variety in the special fiber; the present paper carries out the analogous construction for unramified even \(\mathrm{GU}\). For applications to the ``fake'' unitary Shimura varieties above, Haines and Ngô's result for \(\mathrm{GL}\) is relevant at primes \(p\) where the group \(\mathbf{G}_{\mathbb{Q}_p}\) is split, and therefore the present paper may be regarded as complementary to theirs in the overall program of analyzing these Shimura varieties. Around the same time as the present paper appeared in preprint form, \textit{G. Pappas} and \textit{X. Zhu} released a preprint (subsequently published as [Invent. Math. 194, No. 1, 255 (2013; Zbl 1275.14025)]) that independently proved the author's main results in greater generality, via different methods.