Mathematical assessment of the role of temperature and rainfall on mosquito population dynamics (Q529580)

This interesting paper deals with a mathematical model for the dynamics of a mosquito population. It is described by a system of four differential equations; this corresponds to population's split into four mutually exclusive compartments associated with distinct stages of development: eggs \(E( t) \), larvae \(L( t) \), pupae \(P( t)\), and adult female mosquitoes \(M( t)\). Since the main climate drivers affecting the dynamics of mosquitoes are the rainfall \(R\) and the temperature \(T\), these are incorporated as important parameters in the system. The analysis starts with the autonomous model where two oviposition functions are considered, Pearl-Verhulst logistic and Maynard-Smith-Slatkin. It is shown that the autonomous system has a unique stable nontrivial solution provided that a certain threshold quantity, \(R_{0}\), called the \textit{vectorial reproduction number, }is strictly larger than 1. Conditions for the existence of a stable limit cycle (born through the Hopf bifurcation) are derived. The nature of oscillations for two oviposition functions is compared. For the nonautonomous case, it is shown that both local and global asymptotic behaviors with respect to the trivial solution are similar to what is observed for the autonomous system with a different but similar threshold condition. For both oviposition functions used in the analysis of the autonomous system, sufficient conditions for the existence, uniqueness and global asymptotic stability of the nontrivial periodic solution are derived in the case where the mortality rate for larvae does not depend on the density. Numerical simulations in the nonautonomous system with the Maynard-Smith-Slatkin oviposition function, using mosquito surveillance and weather data for the Peel region of Ontario for 2008--2012, indicate that the period between mid-July and August has the most favorable for the growth of adult female \textit{culex} mosquitoes temperature range and rainfall amount. Thus, the mathematical model correctly prompts when control strategies against the West Nile virus should be intensified.