Stochastic migration theory and migratory phase transitions (Q5903584)

Migration processes are an example of socio-economic dynamics of particular interest for quantitative research: The underlying motivations for the migration of individuals are relatively well defined and they must always result in a clear individual decision to maintain or to change the location in a given interval of time. It is the objective of a quantitative migration theory to understand the migratory dynamics by connecting quantitatively the micro-level of motivations and decisions with the macro-level of the global migration process. I give a short account only of the general scope of the theory, which describes the migratory dynamics on the stochastic level (master equation) and the quasi-deterministic level (meanvalue equations) as well. Then I shall focus in presenting the outlines of a dynamic model for a dramatic migratory process beginning in the last century: The sudden formation of huge metropolitan areas all over the world, in particular in developing countries. The model explains this process by a `migratory phase transition'. In particular, originally stable states of the system may become unstable and transform into new dynamic modes.