Soft computing for risk evaluation and management. Applications in technology, environment and finance (Q5940702)

This volume represents the result of a combination between two very ``hot'' topics: analysis, evaluation, and management of risk on one hand, and the tools offered by the field of soft computing, i.e., fuzzy logic, probabilistic reasoning, neural networks, evolutionary computation, etc., on the other hand. The tools and techniques comprised by the soft computing area can be successfully employed to the formulation and solution of the problems in which risk plays a crucial role. The five parts of the book refer to special domains where risk evaluation and management are essential, e.g. technology, environment, and finance. Part I (Basic Issues) contains five papers devoted to fundamental topics such as: decision making under uncertain, risky, and imprecise information: testing of imprecise hypotheses; elements of Dempster-Shafer's theory of evidence. The six papers of Part 2 (Analysis of Evidence and Data) are concerned with broadly perceived data mining and knowledge discovery, in particular, the use of evidence theory, the discovery of rules and associations, the use of neuro-fuzzy approaches for time series analysis, and tools for preference analysis and classification. Part 3 (Risk in Decision Support and Control Systems) contains three papers dealing with the analysis of human reliability through the use of linguistic terms and relations, the analysis of concurrent real-time distributed software systems, and issues related to safety in control systems. The four papers of Part 4 (Risk in Energy and Environmental Systems) are assigned to a comprehensive exposition of the use of soft (mainly fuzzy) tools for the risk analysis of price forecasting and energy contracting on energy markets, in monitoring of energy and heat supply systems, for nuclear waste management, sea water pollutions, etc. The final Part 5 (Risk in Finance) includes eight papers, the main issues discussed dealing with capital budgeting based on fuzzy cash flows, project evaluation, various risk measures, financial intermediation, creditworthiness, options and management of a portfolio.