A simple card guessing game revisited (Q5942567)

A number of authors have considered the following simple combinatorial game. A deck consisting of \(m\) red and \(n\) black cards is given. The player guesses the color of each card, and then sees it before making the next guess. The expected number of correct guesses and the probability of exactly \(k\) correct guesses have been computed using lattice paths [\textit{R. A. Sulanke}, Guessing, ballot numbers, and refining Pascal's triangle, in preparation]. The authors give another proof, using recurrence relations and generating functions. In the case \(m=n\), an asymptotic formula for the probability that the optimal strategy will do better than random guessing is known [D. Zagier, How often should you beat your kids?, Math. Mag. 63, 89-92 (1990; Zbl 0716.90109)]; the authors compute the exact probability.