Arithmetic statistics for the fine Selmer group in Iwasawa theory (Q6095441)

The study of the statistics of arithmetic invariants attached to elliptic curves goes back at least to \textit{C. Delaunay} [Lond. Math. Soc. Lect. Note Ser. 341, 323--340 (2007; Zbl 1231.11129)], who conjectured that the proportion of elliptic curves over \(\mathbb Q\), ordered by height, for which a prime \(p\) divides the order of the Shafarevich-Tate group is \[ 1-\prod_{i\ge 1} \left( 1- \frac{1}{p^{2i-1}}\right). \] The present paper continues the theme by studying the proportion of elliptic curves for which at least one of the Iwasawa invariants \(\lambda, \mu\) attached to a fine Selmer group is non-zero. Let \(p\ge 5\) be prime. Let \(\mathfrak B_p\) be the set of elliptic curves \(E\) over \(\mathbb Q\) such that \(E\) has Mordell-Weil rank 0, \(E\) has good reduction at \(p\), and the fine Selmer group \(\mathcal R_{p^{\infty}}(E/\mathbb Q_{\text{cycl}})\) of \(E\) over the cyclotomic \(\mathbb Z_p\)-extension of \(\mathbb Q\) is infinite (equivalently, at least one of \(\mu_p\) or \(\lambda_p\) is positive for the fine Selmer group of \(E\) over \(\mathbb Q_{\text{cycl}}\)). Assume that \(\Sha(E/\mathbb Q)[p^{\infty}]\) is finite for all elliptic curves \(E_{/\mathbb Q}\) and that Delaunay's conjecture holds. Then the upper asymptotic density \(\overline{\delta}(\mathfrak B_p)\) of \(\mathfrak B_p\) satisfies \[ \overline{\delta}(\mathfrak B_p) \le \frac{2 \zeta(10)+1}{p} + O\left(\frac{\log p(\log\log p)^2}{p^{3/2}}\right). \] (A more precise error term is given in the paper.) A similar result is proved for elliptic curves of Mordell-Weil rank 1.