Identification of transmission rates and reproduction number in a SARS-CoV-2 epidemic model (Q6105362)

In this paper, a SARS-CoV-2 propagation model with five compartments (susceptibles \(S\), undetected infected asymptomatics \(A\), undetected infected symptomatics \(I\), detected by testing and isolated \(L\), recovered \(R\)) is considered, with a view towards estimating transmission rates of the asymptomatic and symptomatic, respectively. To this purpose, an optimal control technique is employed, relying on the minimization of an objective functional constructed via a best-fit approach. This approach seeks to minimize the integral sum of squared errors involving data on the recovered and isolated compartments, the identification of the rates being provided via first-order optimality conditions involving the solutions of the backwards dual system. The second objective of the paper is investigating the system stability and deriving an explicit expression of the viral reproduction rate under the simplifying assumptions that the disease induces lifelong immunity and the state coefficients are constant. In this regard, it is shown via linearization and Hurwitz estimations that the extinction of the disease occurs provided that the number of individuals that have never been infected stays under a certain threshold.