Dynamics of an epidemic model with quadratic treatment (Q611247)

This paper introduces a logistic treatment function into an SIR model with bi-linear infection force. Treatment is assumed to increase at a decreasing rate as the sub-population of infecteds rises. But at some finite number of infected individuals, the society's ability to treat the infected reaches a peak and then begins to fall, perhaps due to diminishing supplies or the efficiency of health care resources. The system is found to have as many as four equilibria, with possible bi-stability, backward bifurcations, and limit cycles. Particular attention is paid to the effect of variations in the key treatment parameter, \(r\). It is found that when \(r\) is either low or high, small changes in \(r\) do not affect the equilibrium outcome. This reviewer believes that due to the spatial effects of modern epidemics, e.g., SARS, H5N1 and H1N1, flu epidemics, nonlocal effects will force other countries to interfere. Hence, even if the infected country sources may decline, the overall sources are not expected to fall.