Co-feeding transmission leads to bi-stability of tick-borne disease spread dynamics (Q6490377)

The paper studies co-feeding transmission leading to bi-stability of tick-borne disease spread dynamics. The transmission dynamics model is represented by ordinary differential equations. The probability that a co-feeding susceptible larva tick can get infected is given by a piecewise linear function. It is observed that the co-feeding transmission probability reaches the peak value only when the number of infected ticks on the host is at an intermediate level. It examines the implication of this observation using a mathematical model, and demonstrates that bi-stability of the epidemic model can occur due to the density dependent co-feeding transmission efficacy, and hence the long-term outcome of the epidemic process may depend on the initial conditions. Some numerical results are presented to show the bi-stability.