Forecasting the health of elderly populations (Q686871)

[The articles of this volume will not be indexed individually.] Models to forecast changes in mortality, morbidity, and disability in elderly populations are essential to national and state policies for health and welfare programs. This volume presents a wide-ranging survey of the forecasting of the health of elderly populations, including the modeling of the incidence of chronic diseases in the elderly, the differing perspectives of actuarial and health care statistics, and an assessment of the impact of new technologies on elderly populations. The contents of the volume are the following: I. Introduction; II. Methodological issues; III. Forecasting techniques for specific diseases; IV. Effects of interventions on health costs; V. Longitudinal research: Current status and future outlook. Among the topics covered are: uncertainties in projections from census and social security data and actuarial approaches to forecasting; the financing of long-term care programs; plausible ranges for population growth using biological models and epidemiological time series data; the effects of major disabling diseases on health expenditures; forecasting cancer risks and risk factors. This wide-ranging volume will become an indispensable reference for all those whose research touches on these topics.