Intensional vs extensional probabilities from their origins to Laplace (Q752672)

This is a study of an anonymous paper ``Calculation of the credibility of human testimony'' (1699) and its comparison with the relevant considerations of J. Bernoulli (with his ``pure'' and ``mixed'' arguments) and Laplace. The authors conclude that the 17th-century notion of degree of certitude measures the correctness of the ``internal state of the witness''. They do not explain the meaning of the adjectives used in the title of their article, while commenting on the contribution of J. Craig (1699) they fail to mention S. Stigler's recent interpretation of his mathematics.