Environmental fluctuations and extinction - single species (Q801852)

The time until a logistically growing population crosses an ''extinction threshold'' is considered, using a realistic nonwhite environmental noise. A qualitatively accurate expression for the cumulative probability of extinction is derived in terms of a product of the species growth rate and the environmental correlation time. When this product is near unity, there is a much greater probability of rapid extinction. This appears to mark a natural division between r- and K-selected species and to suggest a reinterpretation of how their growth parameters evolve. The process is a form of extinctive evolution.