Patterns in the effects of infectious diseases on population growth (Q809931)

In this paper, two models receive a unified treatment. The first one is an epidemic S-I model in which the population is divided into susceptibles and infectives, and the second one is a host-parasite model. It is assumed that in both cases the population would grow exponentially in absence of the disease. The main problem to be answered is: how does the disease affect the growth of the population. One of the main new features of these models is the introduction of a parameter describing the reduction of fertility due to the infection or the parasite load. Both models lead to a Kolmogorov system of the type \[ \dot x=x F(y),\quad \dot y=y G(k,x,y)\quad (k\text{ is the contact rate)} \] satisfying certain conditions. The paper presents a complete classification of the possible cases with the corresponding phase portraits. In some cases a bistable situation arises with a stable trivial and a stable endemic equilibrium. If the reduction of the fertility is small, no limit cycles occur in the models; however, if the disease/parasite reduces the fertility considerably then a limit cycle bifurcates from the positive stable equilibrium provided that the contact rate k is sufficiently lage. ``The phenomenon of oscillating solutions in the first model is interesting because up to now oscillations in epidemic models of the S-I or S-I-R type were only found for models which contained time delays or periodic forcing terms...''