Reduced SIR model of COVID-19 pandemic (Q830956)

This paper studies a reduced SIR model of covid-19 pandemic. Let \(N_{\max}\) be the population size and \(N(t)\) be the number of infected individuals at time \(t\). For \(x(t)=N(t)/N_{\max}\), the system is described by \(dx(t)/dt=\alpha (1-x(t))(x(t)-x(t-\tau))\), where \(\alpha\) is the probability of contamination of a healthy individuals as a result of a contact with a virus carrier per unit time. Some basic models such as initial stage and final stage have been discussed. Some examples of numerical solutions are discussed. They include solutions with \(\alpha\tau>1\) and \(\alpha\tau<1\) and dependence of solutions on the parameter \(\alpha\tau\) as well as infection transport is discussed. The paper also compares the model with SIR model.