Risk assessment system of natural hazards: a new approach based on fuzzy probability (Q878977)

Due to various uncertainties, risk assessment of natural disasters is highly complicated. These uncertainties result from the lack of sufficient physical knowledge as well as inadequate statistical data. In this paper, uncertainties concerning the likelihood of occurrence and intensity of the disaster are modelled by fuzzy probabilities and the concept of possibility-probability distribution. Uncertainties about the correlation among the parameters of the natural hazard and its consequent damages and losses are modelled by fuzzy relations. The composition of fuzzy probability of hazard and fuzzy vulnerability relation yields the fuzzy probability of damage or loss. The system has been applied for assessing the earthquake risk in the Istanbul metropolitan area.