Metastability, hysteresis and outbreaks in a temperature-dependent model for a mite predator-prey interaction (Q918900)

We consider a model based on a system of two ordinary differential equations for a mite predator-prey population interaction, in which the prey is identified as a pest species that may exhibit an outbreak. Within this context an outbreak situation is modelled by a system with multiple stable solutions, a characteristic commonly referred to as metastability or subcritical instability, with one such solution characterized by a low prey level and another by a high prey level. Outbreaks are induced either by changing a control parameter or by perturbing the populations so that the populations move from the basin of attraction of the low-level solution through a threshold into the basin of attraction of the high- level solution. Traditionally the stable states in such systems have been two community equilibrium points (i.e. two stable fixed points in the first quadrant of the phase plane) separated by a saddle point. The mathematical properties of such systems have been extensively analyzed; however, we are unaware of any attempts to apply these model systems to actual ecological situations.