Forecasting international migration in Europe: a Bayesian view. With contribution by Arkadiusz Wiśniowski. (Q986627)

International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, the book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective. The study presents a thorough state-of-the-art review of methods used for migration forecasting advocating at the same time for the use of the stochastic approach within the Bayesian framework, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement. The book does not assume any prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics, while its outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications. The book is structured in five parts comprising twelve chapters. The first part contains basic introductory information. Part two discusses the existing framework for explaining and forecasting international migration, while part three contains suggestions on how to develop migration forecasting models within the Bayesian approach. Part four offers a general discussion of forecasts and the associated uncertainty from the perspective of population forecasters and forecast users, usually, political decision makers. Finally, part five provides a summary of the findings and the most important conclusions of the study. The book is well-addressed to both policy- and theory-oriented readers, demographers and in particular statistical demographers, as well as to postgraduate students of demography and migration.