Learning Markov models via low-rank optimization
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Abstract: Modeling unknown systems from data is a precursor of system optimization and sequential decision making. In this paper, we focus on learning a Markov model from a single trajectory of states. Suppose that the transition model has a small rank despite of having a large state space, meaning that the system admits a low-dimensional latent structure. We show that one can estimate the full transition model accurately using a trajectory of length that is proportional to the total number of states. We propose two maximum likelihood estimation methods: a convex approach with nuclear-norm regularization and a nonconvex approach with rank constraint. We explicitly derive the statistical rates of both estimators in terms of the Kullback-Leiber divergence and the error and also establish a minimax lower bound to assess the tightness of these rates. For computing the nonconvex estimator, we develop a novel DC (difference of convex function) programming algorithm that starts with the convex M-estimator and then successively refines the solution till convergence. Empirical experiments demonstrate consistent superiority of the nonconvex estimator over the convex one.
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Cited in
(12)- Learning low-complexity autoregressive models via proximal alternating minimization
- Recovering Markov models from closed-loop data
- A low-rank spectral method for learning Markov models
- Optimal Kullback-Leibler approximation of Markov chains via nuclear norm regularisation
- Recursive learning for sparse Markov models
- Adaptive low-nonnegative-rank approximation for state aggregation of Markov chains
- Coherent set identification via direct low rank maximum likelihood estimation
- Semidefinite programming approximation for a matrix optimization problem over an uncertain linear system
- Online statistical inference in decision-making with matrix context
- CP factor model for dynamic tensors
- Detection and evaluation of clusters within sequential data
- Low-Rank Contextual Reinforcement Learning from Heterogeneous Human Feedback
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