Likelihood theory for the Graph Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process

DOI10.1007/S11203-021-09257-1MaRDI QIDQ6341446arXivFDO

Authors Valentin Courgeau, Almut E. D. Veraart

Publication date 26 May 2020

Published in arXiv

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1007/S11203-021-09257-1

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Inference from stochastic processes (62Mxx)

arXiv classification

math.STstat.TH

Abstract: We consider the problem of modelling restricted interactions between continuously-observed time series as given by a known static graph (or network) structure. For this purpose, we define a parametric multivariate Graph Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (GrOU) process driven by a general L'evy process to study the momentum and network effects amongst nodes, effects that quantify the impact of a node on itself and that of its neighbours, respectively. We derive the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) and their usual properties (existence, uniqueness and efficiency) along with their asymptotic normality and consistency. Additionally, an Adaptive Lasso approach, or a penalised likelihood scheme, infers both the graph structure along with the GrOU parameters concurrently and is shown to satisfy similar properties. Finally, we show that the asymptotic theory extends to the case when stochastic volatility modulation of the driving L'evy process is considered.

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