Limiting the spread of disease through altered migration patterns

DOI10.1016/J.JTBI.2015.12.019MaRDI QIDQ305936zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Ross S. McVinish, P. K. Pollett, A. Shausan

Publication date 31 August 2016

Published in Journal of Theoretical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1508.00293

zbMATH Keywords

basic reproduction numberbranching processexpected total sizeminimax optimisation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Applications of branching processes (60J85) Minimax problems in mathematical programming (90C47)

Abstract: We consider a model for an epidemic in a population that occupies geographically distinct locations. The disease is spread within subpopulations by contacts between infective and susceptible individuals, and is spread between subpopulations by the migration of infected individuals. We show how susceptible individuals can act collectively to limit the spread of disease during the initial phase of an epidemic, by specifying the distribution that minimises the growth rate of the epidemic when the infectives are migrating so as to maximise the growth rate. We also give an explicit strategy that minimises the basic reproduction number, which is also shown be optimal in terms of the probability of extinction and total size of the epidemic.

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Cited in

(2)

• Containment strategies of epidemic invasions
• Reducing disease spread through optimization: limiting mixture of the population is more important than limiting group sizes

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