Modelling data uncertainty in growth forecasts
A probabilistic methodology within a dynamic framework is proposed for the study of moments of errors in growth forecasts resulting from data uncertainty. This methodology is applied to well-known evolutionary models of growth, namely exponential and logistic. Explicit expressions for moments of the stochastic variable are derived. The paper explores methods based on two-point distribution approach, second-moment analysis, and probability distribution of parameters. Of these, the two-point distribution is found to be computationally advantageous.
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