Optimal filtering and the dual process
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Bayesian inference (62F15) Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20) Signal detection and filtering (aspects of stochastic processes) (60G35) Markov chains (discrete-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces) (60J10)
Abstract: We link optimal filtering for hidden Markov models to the notion of duality for Markov processes. We show that when the signal is dual to a process that has two components, one deterministic and one a pure death process, and with respect to functions that define changes of measure conjugate to the emission density, the filtering distributions evolve in the family of finite mixtures of such measures and the filter can be computed at a cost that is polynomial in the number of observations. Special cases of our framework include the Kalman filter, and computable filters for the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process and the one-dimensional Wright-Fisher process, which have been investigated before. The dual we obtain for the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process appears to be new in the literature.
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Cites work
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