Parametrically Guided Non‐parametric Regression

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The problem of the conditional mean function \(m(x)=E(Y | X=x)\) nonparametric estimation by the observation of i.i.d. pairs \((X_i,Y_i)\) is considered. It is proposed to use a parametrically guided estimator, based on the identity \(m(x)=m(x,\beta)r(x)\), where \(m(x,\beta)\) is some ``parametric guide for \(m\) which is fitted by an appropriate choice of the parameter \(\beta\) and \(r(x)=m(x)/m(x,\beta)\) is the correction factor. It is proposed to use the maximum likelihood estimator \(\hat\beta\) for \(\beta\) (in the Gaussian case this estimator estimates \(\beta_0\) which minimizes the \(L_2\) distance between \(m(x)\) and \(m(x,\beta)\)). The correction factor is estimated by a kernel weighted local polynomial regression estimator \(\hat r(x)\) of degree \(p\) based on the ``observations \((X_i, Y_i | m(X_i,\hat\beta))\). The leading term of bias and variance of the estimator \(\hat m(x)=m(x,\hat\beta)\hat r(x)\), under some regularity conditions, is obtained. The leading term of the variance is the same as for the local polynomial estimator \(m^*\) with \(m(x,\beta)=1\) and the leading term of the bias for \(\hat m\) is better for \(m^*\) if \(| m(x,\beta_0)r(x)| <| m(x)| \) (in the case \(p=1\)). Some examples are considered and simulation results are presented.




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