Prediction uncertainty and optimal experimental design for learning dynamical systems
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Abstract: Dynamical systems are frequently used to model biological systems. When these models are fit to data it is necessary to ascertain the uncertainty in the model fit. Here we present prediction deviation, a new metric of uncertainty that determines the extent to which observed data have constrained the model's predictions. This is accomplished by solving an optimization problem that searches for a pair of models that each provide a good fit for the observed data, yet have maximally different predictions. We develop a method for estimating a priori the impact that additional experiments would have on the prediction deviation, allowing the experimenter to design a set of experiments that would most reduce uncertainty. We use prediction deviation to assess uncertainty in a model of interferon-alpha inhibition of viral infection, and to select a sequence of experiments that reduces this uncertainty. Finally we prove a theoretical result which shows that prediction deviation provides bounds on the trajectories of the underlying true model. These results show that prediction deviation is a meaningful metric of uncertainty that can be used for optimal experimental design.
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Cited in
(9)- Maximally informative next experiments for nonlinear models
- Empirical risk minimization and complexity of dynamical models
- A global parallel model based design of experiments method to minimize model output uncer\-tainty
- Erratum: “Prediction uncertainty and optimal experimental design for learning dynamical systems” [Chaos 26, 063110 (2016)]
- Learning about dynamical systems via unfalsification of hypotheses
- On unstable and unoptimal prediction
- Empirical quantification of predictive uncertainty due to model discrepancy by training with an ensemble of experimental designs: an application to ion channel kinetics
- Differential equations in data analysis
- All models are wrong, but many are useful: learning a variable's importance by studying an entire class of prediction models simultaneously
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