Probabilistic Causality
This is a work in the tradition of \textit{P. Suppes} [A probabilistic theory of causality (North Holland, 1970)], \textit{Good} [Pac. Philos. Q. 61, 197-217 (1980)] and \textit{Cartwright} [Nous 13, 419-437 (1979)]. The concern is not that of discovering causal relations in statistical data, but that of understanding what an assertion of probabilistic causal relation ``means. This is not an easy question to answer, and the argument of the book consists primarily of artificial examples designed to tease from us the right intuitions. The argument is careful and detailed; if it is not entirely persuasive, it is because the concept being explicated, that of probabilistic causality, is one that is not clear to start with. The general idea is that causes raise the probability of their effects, other things being equal. But we do not want to hold everything equal. So given an empirical interpretation of probability [much like that of \textit{R. Braithwaite} in ``Scientific explanation (Cambridge, 1953)], we want to say that \(C\) causes \(E\) when the probability of \(E\) given \(C\) is greater than the probability of \(E\), in populations in which factors of one kind are held fixed, and in which factors of another kind are varied. Chapters 3 and 4 discuss the two kinds of factors. Chapter 5 discusses the role of temporal asymmetry, and Chapter 6 opens up a new discussion: that of probabilistic ``token causality -- that is, causality that concerns a single unique event, rather than a population. Those concerned with the discovery of causal patterns in statistical data will not find much of interest to them here; those concerned with understanding the meaning of causal assertions where universal relations are lacking will find a lot to intrigue them.
- Causal probability
- A probabilistic analysis of causation
- Probabilistic causation in branching time
- Probabilistic measures of causal strength
- Bayesian Causality
- Causal interpretations of random variables
- Conditionals, causality and conditional probability
- Probabilistic causes in Markov chains
- Causality and Stochastic Dynamic Systems
- Stochastic interdependence, possibility and probabilistic causality
- Axioms of causal relevance
- Reasoning about causality between distributed nonatomic events
- Imprecise probability and chance
- Goals and the informativeness of prior probabilities
- Probabilistic causation in branching time
- Statistics and causal inference: A review. (With discussion)
- Stochastic interdependence, possibility and probabilistic causality
- Generalised Reichenbachian common cause systems
- Probabilistic causes in Markov chains
- Identifying intervention variables
- Causation, information, and physics
- Common cause and contextual realization of Bell correlation
- Data-guided model combination by decomposition and aggregation
- Foundations of probability
- Causes, probabilities, inferences
- Contrastive statistical explanation and causal heterogeneity
- Changing times: a causal theory of probabilistic temporal reasoning
- Causation, probability, and the continuity bind
- CAUSALITY: MODELS, REASONING, AND INFERENCE, by Judea Pearl, Cambridge University Press, 2000
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 918134 (Why is no real title available?)
- A probabilistic analysis of causation
- Causality
- Statistical causality, optional and predictable projections
- On probability-raising causality in Markov decision processes
- Foundations of probability-raising causality in Markov decision processes
- Causal concepts and temporal ordering
- Causal inference in transportation safety studies: comparison of potential outcomes and causal diagrams
- Causality and causal models: a conceptual perspective
- Structural decision theory
- Reichenbachian common cause clusters
- From verification to causality-based explications (invited talk)
- Explaining correlations by partitions
- Formal methods in the philosophy of science
- Causal inference in statistics: an overview
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