The conjunction fallacy and interference effects
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Publication:1044201
DOI10.1016/J.JMP.2009.02.002zbMATH Open1178.81022arXiv0708.3948OpenAlexW2088669196MaRDI QIDQ1044201FDOQ1044201
Authors: Riccardo Franco 
Publication date: 11 December 2009
Published in: Journal of Mathematical Psychology (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: In the present article we consider the conjunction fallacy, a well known cognitive heuristic experimentally tested in cognitive science, which occurs for intuitive judgments in situations of bounded rationality. We show that the quantum formalism can be used to describe in a very simple way this fallacy in terms of interference effect. We evidence that the quantum formalism leads quite naturally to violations of Bayes' rule when considering the estimated probability of the conjunction of two events. By defining the concept of maximal conjunction error, we find a good agreement with experimental results. Thus we suggest that in cognitive science the formalism of quantum mechanics can be used to describe a extit{quantum regime}, the bounded-rationality regime, where the cognitive heuristics are valid.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/0708.3948
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Decision theory (91B06) Cognitive psychology (91E10) Quantum coherence, entanglement, quantum correlations (81P40)
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Cited In (21)
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- The unreasonable success of quantum probability. I: Quantum measurements as uniform fluctuations
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- The triple-store experiment: a first simultaneous test of classical and quantum probabilities in choice over menus
- A survey of quantum-like approaches to decision making and cognition
- Quantum-like generalization of the Bayesian updating scheme for objective and subjective mental uncertainties
- Quantum cognition and bounded rationality
- Questions and answers in an orthoalgebraic approach
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- Quantum-like model of brain's functioning: decision making from decoherence
- Order effects in sequential measurements of non-commuting psychological observables
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- On categorial membership
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- Quantum particles as conceptual entities: a possible explanatory framework for quantum theory
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- The conjunction fallacy: explanations of the linda problem by the theory of hints
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