Unbiased estimators of P(X

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Publication:1355313





The statistical estimation of the probability of linear inequalities is widely used in practice. In particular, in reliability theory the problem is to estimate the probability of failure-free operation of a compound technical system. Let us assume that the system breaks down if the ``stress \(X\) exceeds the ``strength \(Y\). In this case, the terms ``stress and ``strength are understood in a wider meaning. If we assume that \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent random variables, then the probability of failure-free operation is \[ {\mathbf P}(X<Y).\tag{1} \] We consider the two-parameter exponential distribution with unknown shift and known scale parameters as well as the uniform distribution on a segment with one end known. For these cases unbiased estimators for (1) are found. We also obtain unbiased estimators for the variances of these unbiased estimators.











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