Dependent defaults and losses with factor copula models
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Probability distributions: general theory (60E05) Characteristic functions; other transforms (60E10) Derivative securities (option pricing, hedging, etc.) (91G20) Characterization and structure theory for multivariate probability distributions; copulas (62H05) Measures of association (correlation, canonical correlation, etc.) (62H20) Numerical methods (including Monte Carlo methods) (91G60) Credit risk (91G40) Numerical methods for discrete and fast Fourier transforms (65T50)
Abstract: We present a class of flexible and tractable static factor models for the term structure of joint default probabilities, the factor copula models. These high-dimensional models remain parsimonious with pair-copula constructions, and nest many standard models as special cases. The loss distribution of a portfolio of contingent claims can be exactly and efficiently computed when individual losses are discretely supported on a finite grid. Numerical examples study the key features affecting the loss distribution and multi-name credit derivatives prices. An empirical exercise illustrates the flexibility of our approach by fitting credit index tranche prices.
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