Early-warning signals for bifurcations in random dynamical systems with bounded noise
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Abstract: We consider discrete-time one-dimensional random dynamical systems with bounded noise, which generate an associated set-valued dynamical system. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for a discontinuous bifurcation of a minimal invariant set of the set-valued dynamical system in terms of the derivatives of the so-called extremal maps. We propose an algorithm for reconstructing the derivatives of the extremal maps from a time series that is generated by iterations of the original random dynamical system. We demonstrate that the derivative reconstructed for different parameters can be used as an early-warning signal to detect an upcoming bifurcation, and apply the algorithm to the bifurcation analysis of the stochastic return map of the Koper model, which is a three-dimensional multiple time scale ordinary differential equation used as prototypical model for the formation of mixed-mode oscillation patterns. We apply our algorithm to data generated by this map to detect an upcoming transition.
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- Detection of bifurcations in noisy coupled systems from multiple time series
- On the effect of forcing on fold bifurcations and early-warning signals in population dynamics
- Early warning of noise-induced catastrophic high-amplitude oscillations in an airfoil model
- Internal noise interference to warnings of tipping points in generic multidimensional dynamical systems
- Warning signs for boundary noise and their application to an ocean Boussinesq model
- Contrasting chaotic and stochastic forcing: tipping windows and attractor crises
- Anticipating bifurcations of random dynamical systems through tails of stationary densities
- The effect of timescale separation on the tipping window for chaotically forced systems
- Sample paths estimates for stochastic fast-slow systems driven by fractional Brownian motion
- Early-warning signs for pattern-formation in stochastic partial differential equations
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