Maximizing performance with an eye on the finances: a chance-constrained model for football transfer market decisions

DOI10.1007/S11750-020-00584-9zbMATH Open1476.90223arXiv1911.04689OpenAlexW3094182067MaRDI QIDQ1979183FDOQ1979183

Authors: Giovanni Pantuso, Lars Magnus Hvattum 

Publication date: 2 September 2021

Published in: Top (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Composing a team of professional players is among the most crucial decisions in association football. Nevertheless, transfer market decisions are often based on myopic objectives and are questionable from a financial point of view. This paper introduces a chance-constrained model to provide analytic support to club managers during transfer windows. The model seeks a top-performing team while adapting to different budgets and financial-risk profiles. In addition, it provides a new rating system that is able to numerically reflect the on-field performance of football players and thus contribute to an objective assessment of football players. The model and rating system are tested on a case study based on real market data. The data from the case study are available online for the benefit of future research.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.04689

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zbMATH Keywords

sportinteger programmingstochastic programmingsports managementassociation footballteam composition

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of mathematical programming (90C90) Stochastic programming (90C15) Integer programming (90C10)

Cites Work

• Chance-constrained programming
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• The wisdom of crowds and transfer market values
• Determining the best strategy for changing the configuration of a football team
• When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership
• Measuring the technical efficiency of football legends: who were real Madrid's all-time most efficient players?
• Predicting match outcomes in association football using team ratings and player ratings
• Assessing the market values of soccer players – a robust analysis of data from German 1. and 2. Bundesliga
• A node formulation for multistage stochastic programs with endogenous uncertainty
• Beyond crowd judgments: data-driven estimation of market value in association football
• The probabilistic final standing calculator: a fair stochastic tool to handle abruptly stopped football seasons
• Restructuring the Belgian Professional Football League: a location-allocation solution
• An objective approach of balanced cricket team selection using binary integer programming method

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